The Arth and the Irthing - Two Bear Rivers, But Only One Arthur?

ealdor-man -mann, -mon, ealdur-, aldor-, eldor-, es; m. [eald old, not only in age, but in knowledge, v. eald, hence ealdor an elder; man hŏmo].

I. an elderman, ALDERMAN, senator, chief, duke, a nobleman of the highest rank, and holding an office inferior only to that of the king; mājor nātu, sĕnātor, prŏcer, princeps, prīmas, dux, præfectus, trĭbūnus, quīcunque est aliis grădu aut nātu mājor. The title of Ealdorman or Aldorman denoted civil as well as military pre-eminence. The word ealdor or aldor in Anglo-Saxon denotes princely dignity: in Beowulf it is used as a synonym for cyning, þeóden, and other words applied to royal personages. Like many other titles of rank in the various Teutonic languages, it, strictly speaking, implies age, though practically this idea does not survive in it any more than it does in the word Senior, the original of the feudal term Seigneur. Every shire had its ealdorman, who was the principal judicial officer of the shire, and also the leader of its armed force.

From http://bosworth.ff.cuni.cz/008450

“Ceidiaw is a 'pet' form of a name in *katu- 'battle' with the common hypocoristic ending -iaw (> Mod. Welsh -(i)o) found in Teilo (Old Welsh Teliau) etc., and still productive today (Jaco, Ianto etc.). And yes, it's not possible to say what the second element would have been. But the forms you suggest [Cadwaladr, (“Catu-walatros) ‘Battle-leader’, Caderyn (Catu-tigernos), ‘Battle-lord’, Cadfael (Catu-maglos), ‘Battle-prince’, Caturix (a Gaulish god), ‘Battle-king’] are among the candidates, especially as this man was a chieftain of Y Gogledd [the North] at the head of some of the royal genealogies. ” 

- Dr. Simon Rodway, The University of Wales

***

1) Cerdic of Wessex, i.e. Ceredig son of Cunedda, was styled an ealdorman.  This rank carried with it the exact same connotation as Nennius's 'dux erat bellorum.' Furthermore, in Ceredig's kingdom there is an Arth or "Bear" River. The following names occur in the earliest genealogy for the princes of Ceredigion in Wales, a kingdom founded by Ceredig: 

A) Artbodgu or Arthfoddw is 'Bear-Crow',  While the name may seem odd, we must remember that Artbodgu's father was Bodgu, making Artbodgu the 'Bear of the Crow.'  

B) Artgloys or Arthlwys is 'Beautiful or Holy Bear'.

C) Arthgen (perhaps the most interesting of them all!) is 'Bear-Born' or 'Born of the Bear.' 

Nennius wrote his HISTORIA BRITTONUM in Gwynedd, and the princely lines of that kingdom traced themselves back to the great Cunedda and his sons.  Thus if Nennius wanted to glorify anyone, a regional Arthur would have been a natural candidate for him to gravitate towards.  

Another strong indicator that Cerdic may be Arthur is to be found in the Life of St. Germanus.  Here I am posting the entire Appendix on Elafius's lame son as drawn from my book THE BEAR KING:

APPENDIX XII:

ARTHUR AND THE CRIPPLED BOY

Some time ago I posted a blog article on a radical idea, i.e. that the crippled boy in the c. 446-7 A.D. story of St. Germanus and Elafius ( = Elesa, father of Cerdic), as found in Bede's Ecclesiastical History of the English People, was a reference to Arthur/Artorius (or Artri/Arthri).  Now that I've completed THE BEAR KING, which promotes Cerdic of Wessex as the Arthur, I thought I would go ahead and offer this up once more.

Here is the text and modern English translation of the relevant portion of Constantius’s Vita of St. Germanus:

[21] NEC multo interposito tempore nuntiatur ex eadem insula Pelagianam peruersitatem iterato paucis auctoribus dilatari; rursusque ad beatissimum uirum preces sacerdotum omnium deferuntur, ut causam Dei, quam prius obtinuerat, tutaretur. Quorum petitioni festinus obtemperat. Namque adiuncto sibi Seuero, totius sanctitatis uiro, qui erat discipulus beatissimi patris Lupi Trecasenorum episcopi, et tunc Treuiris ordinatus episcopus, gentibus primae Germaniae uerbum praedicabat, mare conscendit, et consentientibus elementis, tranquillo nauigio Brittanias petit.

Interea sinistri spiritus peruolantes totam insulam Germanum uenire inuitis uaticinationibus nuntiabant; in tantum, ut Elafius quidam, regionis illius primus, in occursu sanctorum sine ulla manifesti nuntii relatione properaret, exhibens secum filium, quem in ipso flore adulescentiae debilitas dolenda damnauerat. Erat enim arescentibus neruis contracto poplite, cui per siccitatem cruris usus uestigii negabatur. Hunc Elafium prouincia tota subsequitur; ueniunt sacerdotes, occurrit inscia multitudo, confestim benedictio et sermonis diuini doctrina profunditur. Recognoscunt populum in ea, qua reliquerat, credulitate durantem; intellegunt culpam esse paucorum, inquirunt auctores, inuentosque condemnant. Cum subito Elafius pedibus aduoluitur sacerdotum, offerens filium, cuius necessitatem ipsa debilitas etiam sine precibus adlegabat; fit communis omnium dolor, praecipue sacerdotum, qui conceptam misericordiam ad diuinam clementiam contulerunt; statimque adulescentem beatus Germanus sedere conpulit, adtrectat poplitem debilitate curuatum, et per tota infirmitatis spatia medicabilis dextera percurrit, salubremque tactum sanitas festina subsequitur. Ariditas sucum, nerui officia receperunt, et in conspectu omnium filio incolumitas, patri filius restituitur...

Chapter XXI

Meanwhile evil spirits, flying over the whole island, made known through the involuntary prophecies of their victims the coming of Germanus, with the result that one of the leading men in the country, Elafius by name, came hurrying to meet the holy men without having had any news of them through any regular messenger. He brought with him his son who had been crippled in early youth by a grievous malady. His sinews had withered and the tendons of the knee had contracted and his withered leg made it impossible for him to stand on his feet.

The whole province came along with Elafius. The bishops arrived and the crowds came upon them unexpectedly. At once blessings and the words of God were showered upon them. Germanus could see that the people as a whole had persevered in the faith in which he had left them and the bishops realized that the fallings-away had been the work only of a few. These were identified and formally condemned.

At this point Elafius approached to make obeisance to the bishops and presented to them his son, whose youth and helplessness made his need clear without words. Everyone felt acutely for him, the bishops most of all, and in their pity they had recourse to the mercy of God. The blessed Germanus at once made the boy sit down, then felt the bent knee and ran his healing hand over all the diseased parts. Health speedily followed the life-giving touch. What was withered became supple, the sinews resumed their proper work, and, before the eyes of all, the son got back a sound body and the father got back a son...

When I read the description carefully of Elafius's son's lameness, I happened to think of the following words (from Lewis and Short's Latin dictionary):

arto (not arcto ), āvi, ātum, 1, v. a. 1. artus,

I.to draw or press close together, to compress, contract (not found in Cic.).

I. A.. Lit.: omnia conciliatu artari possunt, * Lucr. 1, 576: “libros,” Mart. 1, 3, 3; Col. 12, 44, 2: “vitis contineri debet vimine, non artari,” Plin. 17, 23, 35, § 209: “angustias eas artantibusinsulis parvis, quae etc.,” id. 3, 6, 13, § 83.—

B. Trop., to contract, straiten, limit, curtail: “fortuna humana fingit artatque ut lubet, i. e. in angustias redigit,” Plaut. Capt. 2, 2, 54 Lind.; Liv. 45, 56: “tempus,” to limit, circumscribe, Dig. 42, 1, 2; 38, 9, 1: “se,” to limit one's self, to retrench, ib. 1, 11, 2 al. —

II. In gen., to finish, conclude, Petr. 85, 4.—Hence, artātus , a, um, P. a., contracted into a small compass; hence, narrow, close; and of time, short: “pontus,” Luc. 5, 234: “tempus,” Vell. 1, 16.

artus , ūs, m. id., mostly plur. (artua, n., Plaut. Men. 5, 2, 102; quoted in Non. p. 191, 12.—Hence, dat. acc. to Vel. Long. p. 2229 P. and Ter. Scaur. p. 2260 P. artibus; yet the ancient grammarians give their decision in favor of artubus, which form is also supported by the best MSS.; cf. arcus.—The singular is found only in Luc. 6, 754; Val. Fl. 4, 310, and Prisc. p. 1219 P.).

I. A.. Lit., a joint: “molles commissurae et artus (digitorum),” Cic. N. D. 2, 60, 150: “suffraginum artus,” Plin. 11, 45, 101, § 248: “elapsi in pravum artus,” Tac. H. 4, 81: “dolorartuum,” gout, Cic. Brut. 60, 217.—Sometimes connected with membra, Plaut. Men. 5, 2, 102: “copia materiaï Cogitur interdum flecti per membra, per artus,” in every joint and limb,Lucr. 2, 282; 3, 703 al.; Suet. Calig. 28; cf. “Baumg.-Crus., Clavis ad Suet.: cernere lacerosartus, truncata membra,” Plin. Pan. 52, 5.—

B. Trop., the muscular strength in the joints; hence, in gen., strength, power: Ἐπιχαρμεῖον illud teneto; “nervos atque artus esse sapientiae, non temere credere,” Q. Cic. Petit. Cons. 10.—More freq.,

II. The limbs in gen. (very freq., esp. in the poets; in Lucr. about sixty times): cum tremulis anus attulit artubus lumen, Enn. ap. Cic. Div. 1, 20, 40 (Ann. v. 36 Vahl.); so Lucr. 3, 7; cf. id. 3, 488; 6, 1189: “artubus omnibus contremiscam,” Cic. de Or. 1, 26, 121: dum nati (sc. Absyrti) dissupatos artus captaret parens, vet. poet. ap. Cic. N. D. 3, 26, 67: “copia concita per artusOmnīs,” Lucr. 2, 267: “moribundi artus,” id. 3, 129 al.: “rogumque parari Vidit et arsurossupremis ignibus artus, etc.,” Ov. M. 2, 620 al.: “salsusque per artus Sudor iit,” Verg. A. 2, 173; 1, 173 al.: “veste strictā et singulos artus exprimente,” and showing each limb, Tac. G. 17: “artusin frusta concident,” Vulg. Lev. 1, 6; 8, 20; “ib. Job, 16, 8.—Of plants: stat per se vitis sine ullopedamento, artus suos in se colligens,” its tendrils, Plin. 14, 1, 3, § 13, where Jahn reads arcus.

artus (not arctus ), a, um, adj. v. arma, prop.

I.fitted; hence,

I. Lit., close, strait, narrow, confined, short, brief: “exierunt regionibus artis,” Lucr. 6, 120: “claustra,” id. 1, 70; so id. 3, 808: “nec tamen haec ita sunt arta et astricta, ut ea laxarenequeamus,” Cic. Or. 65, 220: “artioribus apud populum Romanum laqueis tenebitur,” Cic. Verr. 2, 1, 5: “nullum vinculum ad astringendam fidem jure jurando majores artius essevoluerunt,” id. Off. 3, 31, 111: “compages,” Verg. A. 1, 293: “nexus,” Ov. M. 6, 242: “artostipata theatro,” pressed together in a contracted theatre, Hor. Ep. 2, 1, 60: “toga,” a narrow toga without folds, id. ib. 1, 18, 30 (cf. exigua toga, id. ib. 1, 19, 13): “nimis arta convivia,” i. e. with too many guests, who are therefore compelled to sit close together, id. ib. 1, 5, 29 et saep.—Hence, subst.: artum , i, n., a narrow place or passage: “ventus cum confercit, franguntur in artomontes nimborum,” Lucr. 6, 158 Lachm.: “multiplicatis in arto ordinibus,” Liv. 2, 50; so id. 34, 15: “nec desilies imitator in artum,” nor, by imitating, leap into a close place, Hor. A. P. 134.—

II. Trop., strict, severe, scanty, brief, small: “sponte suā cecidit sub leges artaque jura,” subjected himself to the severity of the laws, Lucr. 5, 1147: “Additae leges artae et ideo superbae quasqueetc.,” Plin. 16, 4, 5, § 12: “vincula amoris artissima,” Cic. Att. 6, 2: artior somnus, a sounder or deeper sleep, id. Rep. 6, 10: “arti commeatus,” Liv. 2, 34; Tac. H. 4, 26; cf.: “in artocommeatus,” id. ib. 3, 13: “artissimae tenebrae,” very thick darkness, Suet. Ner. 46 (for which, in class. Lat., densus, v. Bremi ad h. l., and cf. densus) al.—So, colligere in artum, to compress, abridge: “quae (volumina) a me collecta in artum,” Plin. 8, 16, 17, § 44.—Of hope, small, scanty: “spes artior aquae manantis,” Col. 1, 5, 2: ne spem sibi ponat in arto, diminish hope, expectation, Ov. M. 9, 683: “quia plus quam unum ex patriciis creari non licebat, artior petitioquattuor petentibus erat,” i. e. was harder, had less ground of hope, Liv. 39, 32; and of circumstances in life, etc., straitened, distressing, wretched, needy, indigent (so in and after the Aug. per. for the class. angustus): “rebus in artis,” Ov. P. 3, 2, 25: “artas res nuntiaret,” Tac. H. 3, 69: “tam artis afflictisque rebus,” Flor. 2, 6, 31; so Sil. 7, 310: “fortuna artior expensis,” Stat. S. 5, 3, 117: “ne in arto res esset,” Liv. 26, 17.—Adv.: artē (not arcte ), closely, close, fast, firmly.

I. Lit.: “arte (manus) conliga,” Plaut. Ep. 5, 2, 29: “boves arte ad stipites religare,” Col. 6, 2, 5: “arte continere aliquid,” Caes. B. G. 7, 23: “aciem arte statuere,” Sall. J. 52, 6: “arte accubare,”Plaut. Stich. 4, 2, 39.—Comp.: “calorem artius continere,” Cic. N. D. 2, 9, 25: “artiusastringi,” Hor. Epod. 15, 5: “signa artius conlocare,” Sall. C. 59, 2: “artius ire,” Curt. 4, 13, 34: “artius pressiusque conflictari,” Gell. 10, 6.—Sup.: “milites quam artissime ire jubet,” Sall. J. 68, 4: “artissime plantas serere,” Plin. 12, 3, 7, § 16.—

II. Trop.: “arte contenteque aliquem habere,” Plaut. As. 1, 1, 63; id. Merc. prol. 64: “arte etgraviter dormire,” soundly, Cic. Div. 1, 28, 59: “arte appellare aliquem,” briefly, by shortening his name, Ov. P. 4, 12, 10: “artius adstringere rationem,” Cic. Fat. 14, 32: “abstinentiamartissime constringere,” Val. Max. 2, 2, 8.—

III. Transf.: “arte diligere aliquem,” strongly, deeply, Plin. Ep. 6, 8; so also id. ib. 2, 13.

arthrītis , ĭdis, f., = ἀρθρῖτις,

I.a lameness in the joints, gout (in pure Lat., articularis morbus), Vitr. 1, 6.

From Greek ἄρθρον, arthron "joint," from PIE *ar(ə)-dhro-, suffixed form of root *ar- "to fit together."

The reader will note that these words contain among their meanings "joint", "contract", "lameness" and the like. The lameness of the boy was due in part to the contraction of the tendons of the knee joint.

Could it be that the author of the vita had not derived his story of lameness from the eponym Gewis, but from the name Arthur/Artorius (or Artri/Arthri)?  These names could well have been wrongly etymologized by drawing on Latin words like artus and arto.  In this way Arthur was thought to mean a boy whose knee joint had suffered contraction of the tendons.

The idea is not as crazy as it sounds.  Professor Stefan Zimmer, in his paper ‘The Name of Arthur’, includes among the formal possibilities for explaining the name Artorius the following:

“Artorius as a genuine Latin formation may belong to the word family of ars ‘art, skill, craftmanship’, and be a derivative of artus, -ūs (masculine substantive) ‘structure, joints’, or, less likely, from artus (adjective) ‘structured, tight’. Artorius might have been a substantivized adjective meaning ‘joiner’ (not necessarily in the restricted sense of the modern English word).”

Professor Joseph Pucci, one of the world’s top experts in Late and Medieval Latin, said in response to my query on this issue:

“I think it is possible for a Latin author to connect the name Arthur to the Latin words you discuss. That sort of etymologizing, in fact, strikes me as foundational to the way early medieval thinkers on language and/or literate people thought about the relationship of words to ideas. Two sources that might be useful: Robert Maltby, A Lexicon of Ancient Latin Etymologies, which will give a sense of this sort of thinking in an earlier context (earlier for your interests); the other is a contemporary, and perhaps more immediately useful, source: Isidore of Seville, Etymologiae, in many editions and several translations, including English.”

Professor Gregory Hayes, another expert in Late and Medieval Latin, added:

“Medieval writers are pretty flexible when they start etymologizing and it wouldn't surprise me to see one connecting the name Artorius with artus (noun or adj.), if there was some advantage to be gained in a particular context by doing so.”

In support of the idea that a word or name in a saint’s life could be used to concoct a story, please see the following blog post on my identification of St. Germanus’s famous Hallelujah Battle:

http://mistshadows.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-location-of-alleluia-battle-of-st.html

If this confusion of the name Arthur/Artorius (or Arthri/Artri) for the Latin artus or similar did happen, then Cerdic son of Elafius/Elesa was quite possibly Arthur! This would appear to be in direct conflict with my idea that Cerdic is Ceredig son of Cunedda.  Kenneth Sisam (supported by David Dumville) attempts to prove that Elesa is a derivative of Aloc/Alusa from the Bernician pedigree.* If so, there is no need to find a Celtic prototype for Elesa/Esla.

Of course, if this is true, then the very early St. Germanus story would have to be dependent on the Anglo-Saxon genealogy that grafted Aloc/Alusa onto the Gewessei line of descent.

*As written, Elafius is a Latin name derived ultimately from Greek elaphos, ‘hind, stag.’  A son of Ceredig son of Cunedda is named Hyddwn, from Welsh hydd, ‘stag, hart.’  He was the grandfather of St. Teilo of the stags. It is possible, then, that Elesa is not from Aloc/Alusa, but is a corruption of Elafius, itself a Latin translation for Hyddwn. I've conclusively shown that the Gewissei pedigree runs backwards in the English sources, and so the Elesa presented to us as the father of Cerdic of Wessex would actually be the latter's son. 

If I'm right and Cerdic is in the saint's Life being identified with Arthur, then this would be very strong evidence in support of such an identification.

2) Ceidio son of Arthwys son of Mar (Mar is a variant of Mor and is here for Fergus Mor of Dalriada, the Gwrwst Ledlwm of 'Men of the North') has a name which (see above) probably rendered into a full form whose meaning would have matched that of 'dux erat bellorum.' His father Arthwys, styled also the father of Eliffer/Eleutherius of York (although a later version of the pedigree makes Eliffer a son of Gwrwst Ledlwm).  Arthwys is 'man of the Arth', and given the presence of the Banna/Birdoswald Dark Age hall and the Camboglanna Roman fort in the Irthing Valley, I have made a case for Arthwys belonging there.  The river-name Irthing is though to derive from a Cumbric 'bear'-name.  Not far to the west of Camboglanna and Banna is the Aballava or 'Apple-orcahrd' Roman fort, called Avalana in an ancient source.  A Dea Latis of 'Goddess of the Lake' (probably Burgh Marsh, which in the Roman period surrounded the Aballava fort) was worshipped there.  Incidentally, I've also firmly identified Banna as the birthplace of St. Patrick.  Ceidio was the father of Gwenddolau of Carwinley (G. is possibly a place-name, as it means 'White dales'), Lord of Myrddin/Merlin.

Clearly, a lot of important stuff was going on in this area.  In the past, I have opted for Stanwix/Uxellodunum as the most likely power center for Ceidio, not only because it is roughly equidistant between the Irthing Valley, Carwinley and Aballava/Burgh By Sands, but because this was the largest cavalry fort in all of Britain and there is some evidence that it may have been occupied in the sub-Roman period.  Etterby abutting on Stanwix was traditionally known as 'Arthur's Burg.'

In terms of the Arthurian battles found in Nennius, a Northern Arthur, stationed on the western end of Hadrian's Wall, is vastly to be preferred over a Southern Arthur.  The place-names can more easily be brought into accord with those in the North and some early Welsh literary sources (like the 'Pa Gur', which fixes the location of the Tribruit battle at North Queensferry in Fife) do not permit us to relocate them to territory where Cerdic's Gewissei were active.  If placed in the North, the battle sites are fairly transparent and unambiguous and match very closely places we know of there.  But if placed in the South, we must accept these names from Nennius as attempts to translate what were actually English names.  Only Badon would appear to be a problem in the North, until we accept this as the Roman spa town of Buxton, called after a Roman period pagan goddess.  The English name was substituted because Arnemetia was of a decidedly pagan nature and Arthur's victory there was heralded as one of great Christian import against the invading barbarians.  

It remains true that the most probable place to find the name Artorius is the North.  Dr. Linda Malcor and her colleagues have recently shown (through an as yet unpublished paper) that the Roman period Lucius Artorius Castus may well have been quite a famous man in the North - indeed, not only a dux, but an acting governor.  His name, therefore, may well have been remembered and passed down among the sub-Roman British royal families.  In a corrupt TRIAD, we have a man named Arthur Penuchel ('the Over-lord'), made a son of Eliffer of York.  'LAC' was based at York, of course.  The same connection to York is present in Ceidio son of Arthwys, whose brother was Eliffer.  The original Uther Pen[dragon] (see https://mistshadows.blogspot.com/2018/11/urien-and-uther-pendragon-very-blue-or.html and https://mistshadows.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-new-interpretation-of-key-portion-of.html) may be Urien of Rheged, whose sister married Eliffer.

I'd long ago proven that the famous St. Patrick, whose story immediately precedes that of Arthur in Nennius's HISTORIA BRITTONUM, was born at Banna/Birdoswald, site of the Dark Age hall in the Irthing Valley of Arthwys, father of Ceidio.  According to some scholars, Arthur is set forth in Nennius as a British Joshua, following on the heels of Patrick as Moses.  Nicholas Higham in his KING ARTHUR: THE MAKING OF A LEGEND touches on this comparison:

 https://books.google.com/books?id=dn11DwAAQBAJ&pg=PA185&lpg=PA185&dq=king+Arthur+as+Joshua+following+patrick+as+moses&source=bl&ots=npHctjHpLo&sig=eFDi_c1TB_evxHkKWi9BbAvGyFI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwismsmXn-PeAhUL3lQKHfI8D9AQ6AEwEnoECAsQAQ#v=onepage&q=king%20Arthur%20as%20Joshua%20following%20patrick%20as%20moses&f=false

Wouldn't this drawing of a Biblical parallel be even more potent if both Patrick and Arthur had originated in exactly the same place?

So while all of this is quite circumstantial in nature, there does seem to be an underlying pattern that points to Ceidio as Artorius/Arthur.  It is well known that Celtic peoples could have hybrid names, i.e. names that were modeled after the usual Roman style three name form, but which often contained a mix of both native and Latin names.  So a man with a Cad-/"Battle-" plus Artorius name would not in any sense be unusual.  It is unfortunate, of course, that Ceidio is nowhere referred to directly as Arthur.

CEREDIG VS. CEIDIO: WHICH ONE IS THE REAL ARTHUR?

As I see it, there are two possibilities for the Arthur of Nennius.  Either he is Cerdic of Wessex/Ceredig son of Cunedda of the Gewissei or he is someone else.  This may seem like an obvious and even silly statement, but if he is someone else, then he was put forward as a patriotic, propagandist substitute for Cerdic, who was claimed as a champion of the English and the founder of the Kingdom of Wessex.  And who might this pro-British hero be?

How about Ceidio son of Arthwys, brother of the Eliffer of LAC's York?

Well, let's backtrack a bit.  Geoffrey of Monmouth or his source misappropriated Uther Pen - originally Urien or, rather, Urien's decapitated head of the Llyward Hen poem - by identifying the former with Illtud ('terribilis miles', etc.). This caused a major geographical shift in the Arthur legend. A southern Arthur was born, in story at least, who was separate from both Ceredig and Ceidio.

If we are willing to accept that Uther Pen [1] of the elegy poem was, indeed, originally a designation for Urien, as seems fairly certain (given that gorlassar is used only of Urien and Uther), and Arthur is found in the same poem being compared with Urien, it would be reasonable to suppose that Arthur belong in the North.  We need only think of Arthur's Breguoin, which is Urien's Brewyn (the Roman fort of Bremenium at High Rochester). While it has been assumed that Arthur's Breguoin was merely lifted from Urien's battles, it is also quite possible that both men fought at the same place at different times.  

All in all, I have to go with Ceidio as Arthur.  However, I readily admit that this is mostly an instinctive 'gut-reaction' to the variable results of my long years of research.  Others, looking at the same body of argument (I will not glorify it by referring to it as evidence), may decide that Ceredig looks more like Arthur to them.  And I'm fine with that.  

One thing I can say at the end of this quest: I've been unable to find any other viable sub-Roman/Dark Age Arthurian candidates.  If not either Ceidio or Ceredig, I have no idea who Arthur may have been.  

[1]

The 'dragon' in the title of the elegy poem was added by another hand.  The original name of the poem was simply Marwnat Vythr Pen, the 'Elegy of the Terrible Head (or Chief).' I now believe this occurred because the poem told the story of Urien's death through the mouthpiece of his own decapitated head.  Once Geoffrey of Monmouth or his source had wrongly identified Uther Pen with Illtud, the title was changed to better represent the latter.

For my discussion of some aspects of the Uther Pen elegy, see
https://mistshadows.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-new-interpretation-of-key-portion-of.html.